A strengthening tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico could bring around 4 inches of rain to the Tampa Bay area this week, the National Hurricane Center projected. Already-soaked ground across the region raises the risk of flash flooding for Apollo Beach and Ruskin.

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed Executive Order 26-202 on Tuesday, Oct. 6, declaring a state of emergency for 25 North Florida and Panhandle counties, according to the Tampa Free Press. Hillsborough County is not among them. The declaration covers Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Wakulla and Washington counties.

Tropical Depression Nine formed Tuesday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. advisory. Forecasters expect the system to become a hurricane by Thursday, Oct. 8, and make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast between Friday evening, Oct. 9, and Saturday morning, Oct. 10. It would be the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season.

The storm still matters locally. The National Hurricane Center projected 4 to 6 inches of rain across the western Panhandle and around 4 inches for parts of Tampa Bay, WFSU reported. State officials warned that recent storms have left ground conditions soaked, making additional rainfall more likely to trigger flash flooding.

Forecast models showed no easterly turn toward Florida's west coast as of Tuesday, according to Fox 13. The projected track takes the storm toward the area between coastal Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Wind shear across the northern Gulf could weaken the system before landfall.

The emergency declaration allows the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) to pre-position supplies. State Emergency Response Teams are staging generators, fuel, flood barriers, bottled water, shelf-stable meals, tarps and sandbags in Tallahassee and the Santa Rosa area, according to WFLA.

"Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked," DeSantis said upon signing the order.

Once the depression reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Isaias, the ninth named storm of the season, according to CBS 12. The 2026 season has produced eight named storms so far, but none had reached hurricane strength as of Tuesday.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect as of Tuesday's advisory. The National Hurricane Center said that could change as early as Wednesday evening, Oct. 7, across parts of the Gulf Coast.

What Apollo Beach and Ruskin residents should do

Hillsborough County updated its evacuation zones for the 2026 hurricane season. Residents can check whether their zone changed at hcfl.gov.

The county's HCFL Alert system sends emergency notifications based on a resident's location, including evacuation orders and severe weather alerts. Sign-up is available on the county's website.

Residents with disabilities or medical needs, such as those requiring dialysis or oxygen, should register with the Special Needs Registry to receive assistance during an emergency.

As of Wednesday, Oct. 7, Hillsborough County had not issued storm-specific guidance related to Tropical Depression Nine. Residents should monitor hcfl.gov for updates as the forecast develops.