Diesel fuel hit a record $6.05 per gallon nationally Friday, and Florida drivers paid even more at $6.06, according to AAA.

Higher fuel costs threaten to raise food prices

The price spike will ripple through grocery stores, restaurants and retail shops along the U.S. 41 and I-75 corridors in Apollo Beach and Ruskin. Trucks haul more than 70% of the nation's freight by weight, according to the American Trucking Associations, and fuel accounts for roughly 15% to 30% of the total cost of some food products, WFLA reported, citing the Independent Grocers Alliance.

Diesel is up 63% from about $3.70 a year ago nationally and up from $3.58 in Florida, AAA data reported by the Daytona Beach News-Journal shows. Filling a semi-truck's 300-gallon tank in Florida now costs more than $1,800, up from around $1,000 a year ago.

Perishable goods face the most immediate hit

Perishable items such as meat and produce face the most immediate pressure because they need frequent restocking, the Associated Press reported via Spectrum News.

"It's probably most visible in grocery stores, but it also affects toy stores, clothing stores, anything where merchandise is being transported from one region of the country to another region of the country," Tom Fullerton, a professor of economics at the University of Texas at El Paso, told Bay News 9.

Fullerton said business margins are growing thinner because of transportation costs, making companies less likely to add jobs.

David Ortega, a food economics professor at Michigan State University, said the full impact takes time. Existing freight contracts and retailer margins absorb early cost increases, but as those contracts reprice and fuel surcharges kick in, more of the cost reaches store shelves, Ortega said.

Tampa Bay businesses already feel the squeeze

Tampa Bay-area businesses are already hurting. Robert Williams, co-owner of Willy-Yums restaurant off 14th Street West in Bradenton, told Bay News 9 his product costs are up 34%. Customer spending per ticket dropped from more than $19 to $14. Williams raised some menu prices by 50 cents to $1 at the beginning of September.

Shawn Boyer, who runs a landscaping business in Lutz that relies on diesel, told Tampa Bay 28 in early September that he and his brother each spend $3,000 a month on fuel and related expenses. Boyer said he had been absorbing the higher costs but would have to raise prices going into next year.

War in the Middle East and Russia's export ban drive costs

Two forces are driving the surge. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's supply, have been restricted since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries also prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports through the end of September.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned Thursday of a "costlier holiday season" ahead. The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2027 diesel forecast and now expects retail diesel to average $4.40 per gallon next year, 33 cents higher than previously projected but well below the current record.

Brown University's real-time tracker estimates higher diesel prices have added $46.7 billion in fuel costs since the Iran war began, equivalent to about $357 per U.S. household.

S&P Global Energy said it does not project Middle East crude oil production to return to prewar levels by the end of 2027.